Prediction Markets Morning — 2026-11-02
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
What moved overnight, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, and the trades and conversation around them.
The Overnight Picture
Grambling St. wins moved +66.0 pts to 99.0%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Kalshi. Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner moved −49.0 pts to 0.1%, the most significant liquidity-adjusted move on Polymarket. No matched contracts show gaps of 5 pts or more.
Top Kalshi Movers
Grambling St. wins (+66.0 pts to 99.0%); Will it rain in Columbus on Nov 2, 2026? (+38.0 pts to 99.0%); Will Uber Ride App Downloads for October 2026 be above 99 ? (+33.0 pts to 98.0%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grambling St. wins | 99.0% | +66.0 pts | 100 | $449K |
| 2 | Will it rain in Columbus on Nov 2, 2026? | 99.0% | +38.0 pts | 96 | $9,905 |
| 3 | Will Uber Ride App Downloads for October 2026 be above 99 ? | 98.0% | +33.0 pts | 93 | $3,394 |
| 4 | Will Trump say "Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac" before Dec 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +44.0 pts | 93 | $2,245 |
| 5 | Rafael Jodar wins | 94.5% | +15.5 pts | 93 | $237K |
| 6 | Will Trump say "Deere" before Dec 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +40.0 pts | 92 | $2,665 |
| 7 | Ignacio Buse wins | 99.0% | +71.0 pts | 92 | $303K |
| 8 | Alejandro Tabilo wins | 3.5% | −17.5 pts | 89 | $186K |
| 9 | What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Dubuque, Iowa originally scheduled for November 1, 2026? | 1.0% | −78.0 pts | 88 | $56,887 |
| 10 | Hubert Hurkacz wins | 1.0% | −51.0 pts | 86 | $814K |
Top Polymarket Movers
Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner (−49.0 pts to 0.1%); Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz (+51.0 pts to 99.9%); Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou Bergs (+71.5 pts to 99.9%) lead the ranking by movement significance, which weights the size of each move by volume, liquidity and spread.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner | 0.1% | −49.0 pts | 100 | $377K |
| 2 | Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz | 99.9% | +51.0 pts | 100 | $1.23M |
| 3 | Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou Bergs | 99.9% | +71.5 pts | 100 | $538K |
| 4 | Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana | 0.1% | −19.4 pts | 100 | $426K |
| 5 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A | 57.5% | +13.0 pts | 99 | $1.78M |
| 6 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner | 0.1% | −61.0 pts | 98 | $175K |
| 7 | Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner | 0.1% | −51.0 pts | 97 | $275K |
| 8 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A | 99.9% | +31.4 pts | 96 | $1.40M |
| 9 | Taipei: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Kumstat | 0.1% | −51.5 pts | 96 | $137K |
| 10 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) | 0.1% | −40.5 pts | 94 | $325K |
Largest Trades
The largest recorded execution was $505K on Polymarket in Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?, followed by $340K in Ravens vs. Bills. Size and price impact are measured separately; the tables show the price five minutes after each trade.
| Venue | Market | Side | Notional | Price | Time (ET) | 5m move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | YES | $505K | 100% | 12:30 ET | +0.1 pts |
| Polymarket | Ravens vs. Bills | NO | $340K | 100% | 16:41 ET | — |
| Polymarket | Eagles vs. Commanders | YES | $278K | 31% | 20:20 ET | −1.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Ravens vs. Bills | NO | $274K | 62% | 12:56 ET | −1.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Eagles vs. Commanders | NO | $271K | 70% | 20:20 ET | −1.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027? | YES | $174K | 70% | 20:00 ET | 0.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas? | YES | $130K | 72% | 23:10 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Philadelphia wins | NO | $122K | 99% | 23:10 ET | −1.5 pts |
| Kalshi | Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas? | YES | $102K | 74% | 06:41 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine? | NO | $97,625 | 71% | 20:00 ET | −3.0 pts |
Where Kalshi and Polymarket Disagree
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 shows the widest disagreement: Kalshi 13.5% versus Polymarket 16.0%, a 2.5 pt gap. Gaps can reflect rule differences, fees and venue access as well as differing views.
| Contract | Grade | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 13.5% | 16.0% | 2.5 pts |
| Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.9 pts |
| Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.3 pts |
| Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 6.6% | 5.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | B | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.0 pts |
| Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 4.5% | 3.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8 pts |
Cross-Market Opportunities
No Grade A pair currently shows a positive theoretical edge from executable prices.
Five Markets to Watch Today
Each pick below is selected by a different signal: movement significance, cross-venue disagreement and trade size.
- Grambling St. wins Most significant Kalshi move
- Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Most significant Polymarket move
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 Largest cross-venue disagreement
- Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? Largest trade of the session
- Will it rain in Columbus on Nov 2, 2026? Runner-up significant move
Methodology and Timestamp
Tables are computed from Kalshi and Polymarket public market data at the snapshot time. Movement is in percentage points; significance, impact and evidence scores are described on the methodology page.
Snapshot frozen Nov 2, 08:07 ET ET (2026-11-02 13:07 UTC). Evidence hash a1d99e739c6257ae.