Prediction Markets Morning — 2026-11-01
Rain markets surge across Kalshi as weather events resolve; Polymarket sees massive swings in crypto and sports outcomes.
Rain markets surge across Kalshi as weather events resolve; Polymarket sees massive swings in crypto and sports outcomes.
The Overnight Picture
Kalshi saw widespread movement in weather markets, with contracts for Chicago, Houston, Springfield, New Orleans, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Oklahoma City all surging to 99% probability within the last 24 hours. The most dramatic shift occurred in the Namibia wins market, which jumped 56.0 percentage points to 99% on $176K volume.
Polymarket activity centered on high-volume resolutions and sports outcomes. The 'Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?' market spiked 94.3 percentage points to 99.9% on $1.75M volume, while the Fred VanVleet Rockets contract collapsed 98.0 percentage points to 0.1% on $1.14M volume.
Top Kalshi Movers
Weather contracts led the board, with Chicago (+70.0 pts), New Orleans (+63.0 pts), and Houston (+58.0 pts) showing the largest absolute gains. All three settled at 99% probability, reflecting confirmed precipitation events or imminent resolution certainty.
Beyond weather, the Namibia wins market rose 56.0 percentage points to 99%, marking the highest significance score (100/100) among non-weather movers. Springfield (+36.0 pts) and San Francisco (+35.0 pts) also posted substantial gains.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Namibia wins | 99.0% | +56.0 pts | 100 | $176K |
| 2 | Will it rain in Chicago on Nov 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +70.0 pts | 100 | $18,260 |
| 3 | Will it rain in Houston between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +58.0 pts | 99 | $11,612 |
| 4 | Will it rain in Springfield on Nov 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +36.0 pts | 96 | $19,762 |
| 5 | Will it rain in New Orleans on Nov 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +63.0 pts | 94 | $14,292 |
| 6 | Will it rain in Milwaukee between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +21.0 pts | 92 | $89,015 |
| 7 | Will it rain in San Francisco between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +35.0 pts | 90 | $3,372 |
| 8 | Will it rain in Atlanta on Nov 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +27.0 pts | 90 | $11,351 |
| 9 | Will it rain in San Francisco on Nov 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +34.0 pts | 90 | $3,563 |
| 10 | Will it rain in Oklahoma City between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026? | 99.0% | +25.0 pts | 84 | $5,642 |
Top Polymarket Movers
The 1win token launch market recorded the largest positive move, gaining 94.3 percentage points to reach 99.9%. Conversely, the Fred VanVleet Rockets market fell 98.0 percentage points to 0.1%, indicating a definitive negative outcome.
Sports and political markets also saw notable shifts. PEC Zwolle win odds increased 37.0 percentage points to 79.5%, while Andrey Gyurov's Bulgarian presidential election odds dropped 21.5 percentage points to 14.5%.
| # | Market | Probability | 24h move | Significance | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | 99.9% | +94.3 pts | 100 | $1.75M |
| 2 | Will Fred VanVleet play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? | 0.1% | −98.0 pts | 100 | $1.14M |
| 3 | Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-11-01? | 79.5% | +37.0 pts | 100 | $298K |
| 4 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | 14.5% | −21.5 pts | 100 | $234K |
| 5 | India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India | 99.9% | +57.5 pts | 99 | $323K |
| 6 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | 92.5% | +31.2 pts | 99 | $110K |
| 7 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | 76.5% | +13.0 pts | 99 | $312K |
| 8 | Will Como 1907 win on 2026-11-01? | 87.5% | +12.0 pts | 89 | $546K |
| 9 | Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) | 39.5% | −14.0 pts | 88 | $231K |
| 10 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 38.5% | −4.0 pts | 78 | $634K |
Largest Trades
On Kalshi, large block trades focused on political nominations and sports. Josh Shapiro's NO position traded at $115K, followed closely by Gretchen Whitmer's NO at $99,500. Ohio State wins saw two separate NO trades totaling over $150K.
Polymarket's largest single trade was $238K on the Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries YES side. This was followed by a $222K YES trade on Republicans losing seven specific Senate seats, and another $216K NO trade on the same WNBA matchup.
| Venue | Market | Side | Notional | Price | Time (ET) | 5m move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries | YES | $238K | 60% | 20:45 ET | — |
| Polymarket | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | YES | $222K | 23% | 20:31 ET | +3.0 pts |
| Polymarket | Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries | NO | $216K | 76% | 22:06 ET | −32.6 pts |
| Polymarket | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | YES | $211K | 100% | 21:35 ET | +0.1 pts |
| Polymarket | Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries | NO | $205K | 41% | 21:29 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | NO | $115K | 95% | 01:32 ET | — |
| Kalshi | Will Gretchen Whitmer be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | NO | $99,500 | 100% | 01:33 ET | −0.5 pts |
| Kalshi | Ohio St. wins | NO | $95,077 | 95% | 22:23 ET | −2.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Ohio St. wins | NO | $57,800 | 95% | 22:23 ET | −2.0 pts |
| Kalshi | Real Madrid wins | YES | $33,413 | 83% | 03:01 ET | 0.0 pts |
Where Kalshi and Polymarket Disagree
Disagreements are primarily found in the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee markets. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shows the widest gap, with Kalshi pricing her at 13.5% versus Polymarket's 16.4%, a difference of 2.9 percentage points.
Other notable gaps include James Talarico (Kalshi 4.2% vs. Polymarket 2.5%) and Mark Kelly (Kalshi 3.4% vs. Polymarket 1.8%), both differing by 1.6 percentage points. These divergences suggest varying liquidity or information sets between venues.
| Contract | Grade | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 13.5% | 16.4% | 2.9 pts |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 17.5% | 16.3% | 1.2 pts |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | B | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.9 pts |
| Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 | B | 6.6% | 5.8% | 0.8 pts |
Cross-Market Opportunities
Price discrepancies exist in AOC's 2028 nomination odds, where Kalshi prices at 13.5% and Polymarket at 16.4%, creating a 2.9 percentage point spread. Similar theoretical edges exist for Talarico (1.6 pt gap) and Kelly (1.6 pt gap).
These spreads do not constitute guaranteed profit due to fees, settlement differences, and execution risk. The observed gaps reflect current order book states at the time of data freeze.
Five Markets to Watch Today
Namibia wins remains highly volatile after its 56.0-point surge to 99%, warranting monitoring for final settlement confirmation.
The 1win token launch market is effectively resolved at 99.9% but retains high volume interest ($1.75M).
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 2028 nomination odds show the largest cross-venue disagreement (2.9 pts), making it a key divergence watch.
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries saw the largest single trade ($238K) and significant price swings, indicating active institutional interest.
- Namibia wins Most significant Kalshi move
- Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? Most significant Polymarket move
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 Largest cross-venue disagreement
- Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Largest trade of the session
- Will it rain in Chicago on Nov 1, 2026? Runner-up significant move
Methodology and Timestamp
Snapshot frozen Nov 1, 08:03 ET ET (2026-11-01 13:03 UTC). Evidence hash 3c7227465ee6a030.