ProudGlobeHeadMarkets
Updated 1 min ago
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PolymarketOpenSports

Ravens vs. Bills

View on Polymarket ↗
Implied probability
2.1%
2.1¢ per contract
1 hour
−7.4 pts down
24 hours
−36.4 pts down
7 days
−34.9 pts down
Polymarket
Ravens vs. Bills implied probability. Polymarket moved from 19% to 2%. Times shown in EST.0%20%40%60%80%100%14:05 ET14:26 ET14:47 ET15:08 ET15:30 ET$42,750 NO at 95.0%$44,143 NO at 88.0%$5,000 NO at 92.0%$10,000 NO at 89.7%$17,400 NO at 87.0%$65,250 NO at 87.0%$6,214 NO at 77.0%

Market statistics

24h volume
$1.71M
Total volume
$1.06M
Liquidity
$304K
Open interest
—
Spread
0.2¢
Best bid / ask
2¢ / 2¢
Closes
Nov 1, 13:00 ET
Status
open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first
Buy YES (asks)
2.5¢170.6
2.6¢126
2.8¢2.5K
2.9¢1.0K
3.0¢1.9K
3.1¢1.7K
3.4¢377.2
3.5¢2.0K
Buy NO (asks)
97.8¢500
97.9¢55
98.0¢22K
98.2¢5
98.3¢91.6
98.4¢90
98.5¢115.4
98.6¢520.4

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Ravens win probability drops to 8.5% after heavy NO volume

Moderate evidence
Observed
Established from data

The implied probability for the Ravens winning is currently 8.5%, down from 38.5% over the last 24 hours.

Established from data

The market saw a 30-point drop in 24 hours and a 7-point drop in the last hour.

Established from data

Trading volume reached $1.59M in the last 24 hours, with resting liquidity estimated at $414K.

Established from data

Several large 'NO' executions occurred between 12:56 ET and 14:12 ET, including trades of $274K, $139K, and $65K.

Established from data

Price movements were volatile during this period, dropping from 22% to 14% at 14:15 ET and later settling near 8% by 14:45 ET.

Plausible explanation
Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The significant decline in the Ravens' win probability correlates with high trading volume and specific large 'NO' orders executed during the afternoon session.

Consistent with the evidence, not proven

Market participants appear to be aggressively betting against the Ravens, as evidenced by the consistent execution of 'NO' positions at rising prices (62% to 87%).

Caveats
  • The evidence does not specify external news events or game developments that triggered these trades.

Evidence score 41/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades
  1. Large Polymarket NO execution: $274K at 62%
  2. Large Polymarket NO execution: $70,212 at 62%
  3. Large Polymarket NO execution: $139K at 83%
  4. Large Polymarket NO execution: $65,250 at 87%
  5. Polymarket moves 22% → 14%
  6. Polymarket moves 16% → 10%
  7. Polymarket moves 10% → 14%
  8. Polymarket moves 14% → 8%

Largest recent trades

By notional value
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗15:18 ET13 min agoBills buy95.0%45K$42,750———Normal
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗15:04 ET27 min agoBills buy88.0%50K$44,143———Normal
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗14:39 ET53 min agoBills buy92.0%5.4K$5,000———Normal
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗14:24 ET1 h agoBills buy89.7%11K$10,000———Normal
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗14:13 ET1 h agoBills buy87.0%20K$17,40021.5%15.5%−6.0 pts downExceptional
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗14:12 ET1 h agoBills buy87.0%75K$65,25021.5%15.5%−6.0 pts downExceptional
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗14:09 ET1 h agoBills buy77.0%8.1K$6,214———Normal
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗14:04 ET1 h agoBills sell81.0%13K$10,754———Normal
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗13:55 ET2 h agoBills buy83.4%167K$139K—18.5%—Normal
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗13:35 ET2 h agoRavens sell17.4%26K$4,471———Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗14:12 ET1 h agoBills buy87.0%75K$65,25021.5%15.5%−6.0 pts downExceptional
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗14:13 ET1 h agoBills buy87.0%20K$17,40021.5%15.5%−6.0 pts downExceptional
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗13:19 ET2 h agoBills buy84.0%30K$25,20015.5%18.5%+3.0 pts upExceptional
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗12:56 ET3 h agoBills buy62.0%442K$274K38.5%37.5%−1.0 pts downLarge
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗12:56 ET3 h agoBills buy62.0%113K$70,21238.5%37.5%−1.0 pts downLarge
Ravens vs. BillsSports · Polymarket ↗13:21 ET2 h agoBills buy84.0%21K$17,47616.5%16.5%0.0 pts unchangedNormal