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Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou Bergs

View on Polymarket ↗
Implied probability
99.9%
99.9¢ per contract
1 hour
+52.5 pts up
24 hours
+71.5 pts up
7 days
—
Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou Bergs implied probability. Polymarket moved from 93% to 100%. Times shown in EST.0%20%40%60%80%100%06:10 ET06:16 ET06:22 ET06:28 ET06:35 ET$8,825 YES at 99.9%$7,217 YES at 96.0%$17,709 YES at 97.0%

Market statistics

24h volume
$538K
Total volume
$253K
Liquidity
$199K
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1¢
Best bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Closes
Nov 9, 04:00 ET
Status
open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Buse vs Bergs market surges to 99.9% on large YES trades

Moderate evidence
Observed
Established from data

The implied probability for the Buse vs Bergs market rose from 28.4% to 99.9% over a 24-hour period.

Established from data

In the final hour, the price increased by 43.5 percentage points.

Established from data

Four large Polymarket YES executions occurred between 05:17 and 06:10 ET, with sizes ranging from $10,464 to $22,340 at prices of 24%, 77%, 79%, and 97% respectively.

Established from data

Following these trades, the market moved from 93% to 99% at 06:20 ET, dipped to 89% at 06:25 ET, and settled near 100% by 06:35 ET.

Established from data

Total 24-hour volume was $597K against an estimated resting liquidity of $176K.

Plausible explanation
Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The rapid price appreciation correlates with a sequence of large buy orders (YES) executed at progressively higher prices, suggesting aggressive accumulation or reaction to new information during that window.

Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The volatility observed between 06:20 and 06:35 ET (swinging from 99% down to 89% and back to 100%) indicates potential uncertainty or profit-taking after the initial surge driven by the large block trades.

Caveats
  • The evidence does not specify the underlying reason for the buying pressure (e.g., injury news, match result, or insider knowledge).
  • Temporal correlation between the large trades and price movement is established, but causation cannot be definitively inferred from trade data alone.

Evidence score 41/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades
  1. Large Polymarket YES execution: $21,797 at 24%
  2. Large Polymarket YES execution: $10,464 at 77%
  3. Large Polymarket YES execution: $22,340 at 79%
  4. Large Polymarket YES execution: $17,709 at 97%
  5. Polymarket moves 93% → 99%
  6. Polymarket moves 99% → 89%
  7. Polymarket moves 89% → 100%

Largest recent trades

By notional value
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗06:36 ET1 h agoIgnacio Buse sell99.9%3.0K$2,997———Normal
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗06:33 ET1 h agoIgnacio Buse sell99.9%8.8K$8,825———Normal
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗06:22 ET2 h agoIgnacio Buse buy96.0%7.5K$7,217———Normal
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗06:10 ET2 h agoIgnacio Buse buy97.0%18K$17,70992.5%98.6%+6.1 pts upExceptional
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗06:04 ET2 h agoIgnacio Buse buy79.0%28K$22,340—92.5%—Normal
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗06:03 ET2 h agoIgnacio Buse sell77.1%14K$10,464—92.5%—Normal
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗05:48 ET2 h agoIgnacio Buse buy58.0%11K$6,321———Normal
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗05:46 ET2 h agoIgnacio Buse buy58.0%12K$6,865———Normal
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗05:17 ET3 h agoIgnacio Buse buy24.0%91K$21,797———Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsSports · Polymarket ↗06:10 ET2 h agoIgnacio Buse buy97.0%18K$17,70992.5%98.6%+6.1 pts upExceptional