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Updated 2 h ago
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KalshiSettledSportsGrade C · 61%

Hubert Hurkacz wins

Musetti vs Hurkacz

View on Kalshi ↗
This market has settled to NO. Prices below are the final observed values and no longer move.
Implied probability
1.0%
1.0¢ per contract
1 hour
—
24 hours
—
7 days
—
Kalshi
Hubert Hurkacz wins implied probability. Kalshi moved from 28% to 1%. Times shown in EST.0%20%40%60%80%100%06:40 ET06:55 ET07:10 ET07:25 ET07:40 ET$3,031 NO at 81.0%$2,207 NO at 74.0%

Market statistics

24h volume
$814K
Total volume
$815K
Liquidity
—
Open interest
449,589
Spread
—
Best bid / ask
—
Closes
Nov 2, 07:06 ET
Status
settled
Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Hubert Hurkacz win probability collapses to 1% after heavy NO trading

Moderate evidence
Observed
Established from data

The market price for 'Hubert Hurkacz wins' dropped from 52.0% to 1.0% over the last 24 hours.

Established from data

The current implied probability is 1.0%.

Established from data

A significant portion of the decline occurred in the last hour, with a drop of 51.5 points.

Established from data

Trading volume over the last 24 hours was $709K.

Established from data

Resting liquidity is estimated at $3,689.

Established from data

Multiple large NO executions were recorded between 06:35 and 06:55 ET, including trades of $4,934, $2,207, and $3,031.

Plausible explanation
Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The sharp decline in price correlates with a series of large NO orders executed on Kalshi, suggesting traders aggressively bet against Hurkacz winning during this window.

Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The low resting liquidity relative to the high trading volume may have amplified the price movement, causing the rapid collapse to 1% following the cluster of NO trades.

Caveats
  • The evidence shows temporal correlation between the NO trades and the price drop but does not confirm the underlying reason (e.g., injury, match result) for the betting activity.

Evidence score 35/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades
  1. Large Kalshi YES execution: $3,887 at 55%
  2. Large Kalshi NO execution: $4,934 at 76%
  3. Kalshi moves 28% → 20%
  4. Large Kalshi NO execution: $2,207 at 74%
  5. Kalshi moves 20% → 36%
  6. Large Kalshi NO execution: $3,031 at 81%
  7. Kalshi moves 36% → 1%

Largest recent trades

By notional value
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Hubert Hurkacz winsSports · Kalshi ↗06:55 ET3 h agoNo sell81.0%3.7K$3,031———Normal
Hubert Hurkacz winsSports · Kalshi ↗06:45 ET3 h agoNo sell74.0%3.0K$2,207———Normal
Hubert Hurkacz winsSports · Kalshi ↗06:35 ET4 h agoNo sell76.0%6.5K$4,934———Normal
Hubert Hurkacz winsSports · Kalshi ↗06:01 ET4 h agoYes buy28.0%2.0K$560———Normal
Hubert Hurkacz winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:36 ET5 h agoYes buy52.0%1.0K$520———Normal
Hubert Hurkacz winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:30 ET5 h agoYes buy55.0%7.1K$3,887———Normal
Hubert Hurkacz winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:25 ET5 h agoYes buy52.0%1.7K$860———Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.