KalshiOpenSports

Oregon St. wins by over 7.5 points

Oregon St. vs Fresno St.: Spread

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

6.5%

6.5¢ per contract

1 hour: —
24 hours: −35.5 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $291K
Total volume: $293K
Liquidity: $290
Open interest: 203,374
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 6¢ / 7¢
Closes: Nov 2, 22:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

7.0¢11K

8.0¢10K

9.0¢713.5

10.0¢1.1K

11.0¢1.7K

12.0¢3.5K

13.0¢48

14.0¢1

Buy NO (asks)

94.0¢21K

95.0¢14K

96.0¢13K

97.0¢54K

98.0¢78K

99.0¢9.9K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

23:30 ET EDT
Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,932 at 50%
23:31 ET EDT
Large Kalshi NO execution: $3,452 at 57%
23:55 ET EDT
Large Kalshi NO execution: $1,863 at 67%
00:40 ET EDT
Kalshi moves 15% → 7%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Oregon St. wins by over 7.5 pointsSports · Kalshi ↗	23:55 ET53 min ago	No sell	67.0%	2.8K	$1,863	—	—	—	Normal
Oregon St. wins by over 7.5 pointsSports · Kalshi ↗	23:31 ET1 h ago	No sell	57.0%	6.1K	$3,452	—	—	—	Normal
Oregon St. wins by over 7.5 pointsSports · Kalshi ↗	23:30 ET1 h ago	Yes buy	50.0%	3.9K	$1,932	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If Oregon St. wins by more than 7.5 points in the Oregon St. vs Fresno St. college football game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Source: https://www.espn.com

Related markets

Oregon St. wins by over 6.5 points9.5% · $1.11M 24h
Fresno St. wins by over 2.5 points51.5% · $17,071 24h
Northern Illinois wins14.5% · $4.46M 24h
Fresno St. wins70.5% · $2.73M 24h
Oregon St. wins29.5% · $2.20M 24h
Diana Shnaider wins98.5% · $1.22M 24h
Texas St. wins1.0% · $996K 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.