KalshiOpenPoliticsGrade B · 95%

Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

4.2%

4.2¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +0.5 pts up
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $31,554
Total volume: $6.86M
Liquidity: $1,031
Open interest: 5,186,354
Spread: 0.1¢
Best bid / ask: 4¢ / 4¢
Closes: Nov 7, 10:00 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

4.2¢27K

4.3¢50K

4.4¢1

4.6¢19K

4.7¢1.0K

4.8¢130.4

4.9¢15K

5.0¢51K

Buy NO (asks)

95.9¢4.0K

96.0¢2.5

96.2¢34.5

96.3¢57.1

96.4¢3.7K

96.5¢1.3K

96.6¢525.8

96.7¢9.4K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

03:45 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $3,862 at 96%
03:45 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $1,253 at 96%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?Politics · Kalshi ↗	03:45 ET3 h ago	No sell	95.9%	1.3K	$1,253	—	—	—	Normal
Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?Politics · Kalshi ↗	03:45 ET3 h ago	No sell	95.9%	4.0K	$3,862	4.2%	4.2%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?Politics · Kalshi ↗	03:44 ET3 h ago	No sell	95.9%	937	$899	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?Politics · Kalshi ↗	03:45 ET3 h ago	No sell	95.9%	4.0K	$3,862	4.2%	4.2%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal