Prediction Market Basics
What a prediction market is, how a contract pays, and how to read one without guessing.
Prediction Market Basics · 4 min readWhat Is a Prediction Market? A Plain ExplanationA prediction market turns a question about the future into a tradable contract, and its price into a probability. Here is how that works, in plain language.
Prediction Market Basics · 4 min readHow an Event Contract Pays OutAn event contract settles at one dollar or nothing. Understanding that single fact explains pricing, profit, loss and most of the mistakes people make early on.
Prediction Market Basics · 4 min readYes and No Shares: Two Sides of One PriceYes and No are not two markets. They are two halves of one contract whose prices must sum to a dollar, and that identity explains a surprising amount.
Prediction Market Basics · 4 min readPrediction Markets vs Polls: What Each One MeasuresPolls measure stated intention in a sample. Markets measure what people will risk money on. They answer different questions, and each fails in its own way.
Prediction Market Basics · 3 min readPrediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: Odds, Vig and PriceA sportsbook sets a price and takes the other side. An exchange matches you against other participants. That structural difference shows up in every number on screen.
Prediction Market Basics · 4 min readHow to Read a Prediction Market PagePrice, volume, open interest, the book and the history. What each number on a market page is telling you, and which ones deserve your attention first.
Prediction Market Basics · 3 min readWho Is on the Other Side of Your TradeSomebody took the opposite view, or was paid to be indifferent. Knowing which one you are dealing with changes how you read a price and a spread.
Prediction Market Basics · 3 min readResolution: How a Market Decides Who Was RightResolution is where more money is lost than in forecasting. What a resolution source is, how disputes work, and the rule wording that catches people out.
Prediction Market Basics · 4 min readA Short History of Prediction MarketsFrom nineteenth-century election betting on Wall Street to regulated event exchanges and on-chain venues, with the research that made the idea respectable.
Prediction Market Basics · 4 min readYour First Week Watching Prediction MarketsA seven-day routine for learning to read prediction markets properly, without putting money at risk and without drowning in numbers you cannot yet interpret.