What Markets Price
Elections, macroeconomic releases, sport, weather, crypto and company events, one category at a time.
What Markets Price · 3 min readHow Markets Behave Around a Scheduled Data ReleaseA known number arrives at a known second. What happens to spreads, depth and prices before, during and after, and why the window is not for everyone.
What Markets Price · 3 min readWhy Long-Horizon Markets Behave StrangelyA contract settling in two years is priced by people who must tie up capital for two years. That single fact explains most of what looks odd about them.
What Markets Price · 3 min readHow Election Markets Work, MechanicallyThe structure of political event contracts: what resolves them, why venues disagree, and how to read a political price without reading politics into it.
What Markets Price · 3 min readInterest Rate Markets and Why They Are Well PricedRate decision contracts compete with an enormous existing futures market. That competition makes them among the most reliable prices on any event venue.
What Markets Price · 3 min readInflation Print Markets and the Detail That Decides ThemWhich index, which vintage, which decimal. Inflation contracts are settled by details that most participants never read, and occasionally that matters.
What Markets Price · 3 min readSports Event Contracts and Why They Are ContestedEvent contracts on sport sit on a regulatory boundary and compete with the most efficient betting markets in existence. Both facts shape how they trade.
What Markets Price · 3 min readWeather and Climate MarketsSettled by meteorological agency data against a named station and threshold. The cleanest resolution in event markets, with a few specific traps.
What Markets Price · 3 min readCrypto Price Markets and Why They Are Harder Than They LookThe underlying trades continuously on a dozen venues. That makes the settlement source, the timestamp and the reference price the whole ballgame.
What Markets Price · 3 min readCompany and Technology Event MarketsLaunches, filings, approvals and milestones. These markets live or die on their wording, and the wording is usually the most interesting thing about them.
What Markets Price · 3 min readAward and Culture MarketsPrizes, ceremonies and cultural milestones. Small, thin, entertaining, and a surprisingly good place to practise forecasting against a clean outcome.