PolymarketOpenPolitics

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

25.5%

25.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +1.0 pts up
7 days: —

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $610K
Total volume: $585K
Liquidity: $1.43M
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 25¢ / 26¢
Closes: Nov 3, 18:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

26.0¢419K

27.0¢1.3M

28.0¢489.2

29.0¢4.3K

30.0¢620.8

33.0¢400

34.0¢227

40.0¢240

Buy NO (asks)

75.0¢101K

76.0¢553K

77.0¢13K

78.0¢36K

79.0¢15K

92.0¢222

93.0¢685.7

94.0¢333.3

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

20:31 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $222K at 23%
20:31 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $71,256 at 24%
21:00 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $11,100 at 74%
21:31 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $19,849 at 74%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics · Polymarket ↗	21:31 ET2 h ago	No sell	74.0%	27K	$19,849	25.5%	25.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics · Polymarket ↗	21:00 ET3 h ago	No sell	74.0%	15K	$11,100	25.5%	25.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:31 ET3 h ago	Yes buy	24.0%	297K	$71,256	22.5%	25.5%	+3.0 pts up	Exceptional
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:31 ET3 h ago	Yes buy	23.5%	946K	$222K	22.5%	25.5%	+3.0 pts up	Exceptional

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:31 ET3 h ago	Yes buy	23.5%	946K	$222K	22.5%	25.5%	+3.0 pts up	Exceptional
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:31 ET3 h ago	Yes buy	24.0%	297K	$71,256	22.5%	25.5%	+3.0 pts up	Exceptional
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics · Polymarket ↗	21:31 ET2 h ago	No sell	74.0%	27K	$19,849	25.5%	25.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics · Polymarket ↗	21:00 ET3 h ago	No sell	74.0%	15K	$11,100	25.5%	25.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Related markets

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine…0.4% · $1.15M 24h
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Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and…10.2% · $344K 24h
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, a…1.8% · $249K 24h
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and…1.6% · $235K 24h
Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and…0.9% · $188K 24h
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and…0.3% · $185K 24h
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and…1.8% · $180K 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.