PolymarketOpenPolitics

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Bulgaria Presidential Election

View on Polymarket ↗

Closing soon — trading ends 20 h from now at Nov 1, 23:59 ET. Liquidity often thins out near the close.

Implied probability

29.0%

29.0¢ per contract

1 hour: −5.5 pts down
24 hours: −4.5 pts down
7 days: +14.0 pts up

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $120K
Total volume: $1.15M
Liquidity: $97,372
Open interest: —
Spread: 2.0¢
Best bid / ask: 28¢ / 30¢
Closes: Nov 1, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

27.0¢45

28.0¢670

29.0¢998.1

30.0¢620.5

31.0¢3.3K

32.0¢2.9K

33.0¢650

34.0¢29

Buy NO (asks)

75.0¢35.9

76.0¢33.8

77.0¢434

78.0¢580

79.0¢2.4K

80.0¢401

82.0¢1.3K

83.0¢400

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

03:25 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $3,060 at 68%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics · Polymarket ↗	03:25 ET49 min ago	No buy	68.0%	4.5K	$3,060	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Source: https://www.cik.bg/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.