PolymarketOpenPolitics

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Texas Senate Election Winner

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

74.5%

74.5¢ per contract

1 hour: +1.0 pts up
24 hours: +4.0 pts up
7 days: +10.0 pts up

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $397K
Total volume: $4.28M
Liquidity: $1.35M
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 74¢ / 75¢
Closes: Nov 3, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

76.0¢15K

77.0¢460K

78.0¢737K

79.0¢286K

80.0¢15K

81.0¢5.1K

82.0¢5.8K

83.0¢5.0K

Buy NO (asks)

25.0¢11K

26.0¢11K

27.0¢165K

28.0¢198K

29.0¢76K

30.0¢148K

31.0¢171K

32.0¢110K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

06:10 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $20,000 at 71%
11:56 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $11,596 at 30%
13:51 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $10,000 at 71%
20:29 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $18,099 at 71%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	02:51 ET1 h ago	Yes buy	74.0%	8.8K	$6,492	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	01:02 ET3 h ago	Yes sell	73.0%	4.2K	$3,042	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	22:03 ET6 h ago	Yes buy	72.0%	7.9K	$5,716	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:29 ET7 h ago	Yes buy	71.0%	25K	$18,099	70.5%	71.5%	+1.0 pts up	Large
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	19:45 ET8 h ago	Yes buy	71.0%	7.0K	$5,000	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	14:20 ET14 h ago	No buy	29.0%	26K	$7,613	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	13:51 ET14 h ago	Yes buy	71.0%	14K	$10,000	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	12:20 ET16 h ago	Yes buy	71.0%	7.0K	$5,000	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	11:56 ET16 h ago	No buy	30.0%	39K	$11,596	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	08:57 ET19 h ago	Yes buy	71.0%	4.9K	$3,500	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:29 ET7 h ago	Yes buy	71.0%	25K	$18,099	70.5%	71.5%	+1.0 pts up	Large
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	04:51 ET23 h ago	Yes sell	70.0%	11K	$7,700	70.5%	70.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	03:14 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	71.0%	5.5K	$3,934	70.5%	70.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	01:36 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	71.0%	35K	$24,850	70.5%	70.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.