PolymarketOpenPolitics

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

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Implied probability

4.5%

4.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −1.0 pts down
7 days: −3.0 pts down

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $393K
Total volume: $15.21M
Liquidity: $4.04M
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 4¢ / 5¢
Closes: Nov 3, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

5.0¢298K

6.0¢3.0M

7.0¢123K

8.0¢109K

9.0¢399K

10.0¢11K

11.0¢12K

12.0¢5.1K

Buy NO (asks)

96.0¢91K

97.0¢6.0M

98.0¢1.9M

99.0¢635K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included.…

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.