KalshiSettledSports

Carlos Alcaraz wins

de Minaur vs Alcaraz

View on Kalshi ↗

This market has settled to YES. Prices below are the final observed values and no longer move.

Implied probability

99.0%

99.0¢ per contract

1 hour: —
24 hours: —
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $1.33M
Total volume: $1.33M
Liquidity: —
Open interest: 1,008,260
Spread: —
Best bid / ask: —
Closes: Nov 1, 09:41 ET
Status: settled

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:30 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	90.0%	7.4K	$6,660	—	—	—	Normal
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:28 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	93.0%	11K	$10,230	92.5%	93.5%	+1.0 pts up	Elevated
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:28 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	93.0%	11K	$9,859	92.5%	93.5%	+1.0 pts up	Elevated
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:22 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	94.0%	10K	$9,400	92.5%	89.5%	−3.0 pts down	Large
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:19 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	92.0%	20K	$18,400	—	89.5%	—	Normal
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:12 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	94.0%	10K	$9,865	—	92.5%	—	Normal
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:10 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	96.0%	6.2K	$5,931	—	—	—	Normal
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:08 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	97.0%	49K	$47,716	—	92.5%	—	Normal
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:00 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	94.0%	5.0K	$4,700	—	—	—	Normal
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:00 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	94.0%	22K	$20,541	—	92.5%	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:22 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	94.0%	10K	$9,400	92.5%	89.5%	−3.0 pts down	Large
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:28 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	93.0%	11K	$10,230	92.5%	93.5%	+1.0 pts up	Elevated
Carlos Alcaraz winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:28 ET1 d ago	Yes buy	93.0%	11K	$9,859	92.5%	93.5%	+1.0 pts up	Elevated

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If Carlos Alcaraz wins the de Minaur vs Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the de Minaur vs Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Vienna Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.