Resolution Differences That Break a Comparison
The specific ways two markets on the same subject can resolve differently: sources, vintages, deadlines, ties and the fallback when data never arrives.
Two contracts can share a subject, a threshold and a deadline and still resolve differently. Here are the specific mechanisms, roughly in order of how often they cause a problem.
Different source for the same concept
Statistical agencies publish several series that all have a claim to the same name. Headline and core. Seasonally adjusted and raw. National and regional. Provisional and final.
If one venue names one series and the other names a different one, the contracts can disagree by more than any plausible gap, and no amount of liquidity will close it. This is the most common serious mismatch on economic markets.
First print versus revised
A regulated contract almost always settles on the value published at a named moment, not on the eventually revised value. If another venue's wording allows the revised figure, you have two contracts that can resolve in opposite directions on the same underlying fact.
Revisions to major series are routine and occasionally large. This is not a theoretical concern. Where settlement numbers come from.
Strict versus inclusive thresholds
"Above 3.0" excludes exactly 3.0. "3.0 or above" includes it. Figures land exactly on round thresholds more often than a continuous distribution would suggest, because the underlying data is rounded to one or two decimals.
A tie is rare per market and, across hundreds of markets, not rare at all.
Different deadlines for the same event
One contract requires an official certification by a stated date. Another resolves on credible reporting. The event is the same; the moment it counts as having happened is not.
Between those two moments the two contracts are legitimately priced differently, and the difference is not an error.
Rule-based versus challenge-based resolution
A filed rule is applied mechanically by an exchange. A proposal-and-challenge process resolves by declaration unless someone objects, with a vote behind it.
These produce the same answer almost all the time. On ambiguously worded questions they can produce different ones, and the ambiguity is precisely where the interesting markets are. How Polymarket resolves and disputes.
Fallbacks when data does not arrive
Publication is suspended, an agency reorganises, an event is cancelled. One contract extends, another substitutes a named alternative, a third voids and returns capital.
A voided leg against a settled leg turns a hedged pair into an outright position you did not choose. This is one of the genuinely dangerous outcomes for anyone holding both sides. Resolution risk.
Time zones
Especially on daily closing levels and same-day events. A deadline stated in one zone and another stated in a different zone can differ by enough to matter on a fast-moving day.
How to check a pair quickly
Four questions, under two minutes:
- Do both name the same publisher and the same series?
- Do both use the same threshold and the same comparison direction?
- Do both use the same observation moment, in the same zone?
- Do both handle non-publication the same way?
Any no means the pair is not equivalent. It may still be interesting, but it is a different trade from the one the headline gap implies.
This is the checklist the equivalence grade automates, and the reason this site publishes a theoretical cross-market edge rather than an expected return.
Next
Persistent versus temporary gaps — telling the structural ones from the fleeting ones.
Educational content only. Nothing here is financial advice, a solicitation, or an offer to trade. Prediction markets can move against you and a position can lose its entire value. Where this guide describes a difference between venues it describes a theoretical cross-market edge in observed prices, which is not a profit: fees, spreads, capital lockup, transfer time and differing settlement rules all come out of it first.
Keep reading
Cross-Market Gaps · 3 min readHow Equivalence Grades Work, and Why They Matter MostBefore comparing two prices you have to decide whether the two questions are the same. That judgement is graded, and the grade matters more than the gap.
Cross-Market Gaps · 3 min readPersistent Gaps, Temporary Gaps, and Telling Them ApartSome price differences close in minutes and some never close at all. The two kinds have different causes and require completely different responses.
Cross-Market Gaps · 3 min readWhat a Cross-Market Gap Is Actually WorthTake a six-cent gap between two venues and subtract every real cost, one line at a time. The remainder is the honest number, and it is much smaller.
Data and Automation · 3 min readStoring Market Time Series Without Drowning in DataMost of what a naive collector records says nothing happened. Sampling, change-only writes and sensible retention keep a useful history small.