KalshiOpenPolitics

Will the Republican Party have more than 237 House seats on Feb 1, 2027?

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

1.3%

1.3¢ per contract

1 hour: +0.1 pts up
24 hours: +0.3 pts up
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $32,350
Total volume: $722K
Liquidity: $33.00
Open interest: 566,546
Spread: 0.1¢
Best bid / ask: 1¢ / 1¢
Closes: Feb 1, 10:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

1.5¢1

1.6¢145

1.7¢166.3

1.8¢24K

1.9¢800

2.0¢57

2.1¢1.2K

2.2¢7.2K

Buy NO (asks)

98.7¢13

98.8¢959

99.1¢28

99.2¢28

99.3¢1.8K

99.4¢4.2K

99.5¢1.8K

99.8¢550

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Republican Party have more than 237 House seats on Feb 1, 2027?Politics · Kalshi ↗	01:45 ET13 h ago	No sell	98.9%	1.0K	$989	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If the Republican Party has above 237 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Republicans will be included

Source: https://www.congress.gov/

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Will the Republican Party win 228-232 seats in the 120th Congress?1.3% · $44,214 24h
Will the Republican Party win 208-212 seats in the 120th Congress?5.1% · $37,762 24h
Will the Republican Party win 203-207 seats in the 120th Congress?6.3% · $15,914 24h
Will the Republican Party win 233-237 seats in the 120th Congress?0.7% · $14,371 24h
Will the Republican Party have fewer than 193 House seats on Feb 1, 2027?44.5% · $9,986 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.