Ugo Humbert wins
Humbert vs Van de Zandschulp
- 1 hour
- +32.5 pts up
- 24 hours
- +16.0 pts up
- 7 days
- —
Market statistics
- 24h volume
- $2.60M
- Total volume
- $670K
- Liquidity
- $16.00
- Open interest
- 1,615,318
- Spread
- 2.0¢
- Best bid / ask
- 75¢ / 77¢
- Closes
- Nov 15, 05:00 ET
- Status
- open
Order book
Why is this moving?
Ugo Humbert win probability rises to 78.5% after large YES trades
Moderate evidenceThe implied probability for 'Ugo Humbert wins' is 78.5%, up from 59.0% over the last 24 hours.
At 16:54 ET, four Kalshi YES executions occurred with volumes of $43,876, $33,333, $33,333, and $33,333 at prices between 77% and 78%.
The price moved from 44% at 16:50 ET to 80% by 16:55 ET.
The sharp increase in implied probability coincides temporally with the cluster of large YES buy orders executed at 16:54 ET.
The volatility between 16:40 and 16:55 ET suggests rapid repricing, potentially driven by live match developments or new information not specified in the evidence.
- The specific cause of the price movement (e.g., score change, injury) is not provided in the evidence.
Evidence score 41/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.
Event timeline
- Kalshi moves 49% → 65%
- Kalshi moves 65% → 44%
- Large Kalshi YES execution: $43,876 at 78%
- Large Kalshi YES execution: $33,333 at 77%
- Large Kalshi YES execution: $33,333 at 77%
- Large Kalshi YES execution: $33,333 at 78%
- Kalshi moves 44% → 80%
Largest recent trades
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ugo Humbert winsSports · Kalshi ↗ | 16:54 ET58 min ago | Yes buy | 78.0% | 43K | $33,333 | 43.5% | 78.5% | +35.0 pts up | Exceptional |
| Ugo Humbert winsSports · Kalshi ↗ | 16:54 ET58 min ago | Yes buy | 77.0% | 43K | $33,333 | 43.5% | 78.5% | +35.0 pts up | Exceptional |
| Ugo Humbert winsSports · Kalshi ↗ | 16:54 ET58 min ago | Yes buy | 77.0% | 43K | $33,333 | 43.5% | 78.5% | +35.0 pts up | Exceptional |
| Ugo Humbert winsSports · Kalshi ↗ | 16:54 ET58 min ago | Yes buy | 78.0% | 56K | $43,876 | 43.5% | 78.5% | +35.0 pts up | Exceptional |
| Ugo Humbert winsSports · Kalshi ↗ | 16:30 ET1 h ago | Yes buy | 51.0% | 3.8K | $1,934 | — | — | — | Normal |
Most price-impactful trades
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ugo Humbert winsSports · Kalshi ↗ | 16:54 ET58 min ago | Yes buy | 78.0% | 56K | $43,876 | 43.5% | 78.5% | +35.0 pts up | Exceptional |
| Ugo Humbert winsSports · Kalshi ↗ | 16:54 ET58 min ago | Yes buy | 78.0% | 43K | $33,333 | 43.5% | 78.5% | +35.0 pts up | Exceptional |
| Ugo Humbert winsSports · Kalshi ↗ | 16:54 ET58 min ago | Yes buy | 77.0% | 43K | $33,333 | 43.5% | 78.5% | +35.0 pts up | Exceptional |
| Ugo Humbert winsSports · Kalshi ↗ | 16:54 ET58 min ago | Yes buy | 77.0% | 43K | $33,333 | 43.5% | 78.5% | +35.0 pts up | Exceptional |