KalshiSettledSports

Katie Volynets wins

Name: Katie Volynets wins — Kalshi implied probability history
Creator: ProudGlobeHead Markets
License: https://proudglobehead.com/markets/methodology

Volynets vs Sasnovich

View on Kalshi ↗

This market has settled to NO. Prices below are the final observed values and no longer move.

Implied probability

7.5%

7.5¢ per contract

1 hour: —
24 hours: —
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $1.40M
Total volume: $1.42M
Liquidity: —
Open interest: 589,761
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 7¢ / 8¢
Closes: Nov 2, 04:35 ET
Status: settled

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Katie Volynets win probability collapses to 1% after heavy NO selling

Moderate evidence

Observed

Established from data

The market price for 'Katie Volynets wins' dropped from 93.0% to 1.0% over the last 24 hours.

Established from data

Current implied probability is 1.0%.

Established from data

Trading volume reached $1.42M in the past 24 hours.

Established from data

Resting liquidity is estimated at $5,620.

Established from data

Large NO executions occurred around 03:30 ET, including trades of $10,008 at 67% and 68%, and $6,373 at 66%.

Established from data

A subsequent large NO execution of $7,332 occurred at 04:21 ET at a price of 94%.

Established from data

The price moved from 6% to 1% by 05:00 ET.

Plausible explanation

Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The significant drop in probability correlates with high trading volume ($1.42M) and specific large sell orders (NO executions) observed between 03:30 and 04:21 ET.

Consistent with the evidence, not proven

The low resting liquidity ($5,620) suggests that the large trade sizes relative to available depth contributed to the sharp price movement.

Caveats

The evidence shows temporal correlation between large NO trades and the price drop but does not confirm the underlying news or event causing traders to sell.

Evidence score 38/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

03:30 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $10,008 at 67%
03:30 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $10,008 at 68%
03:30 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $6,373 at 66%
04:21 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $7,332 at 94%
05:00 ET EST
Kalshi moves 6% → 1%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	04:21 ET1 h ago	No sell	94.0%	7.8K	$7,332	—	—	—	Normal
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	04:20 ET1 h ago	No sell	93.0%	6.6K	$6,103	—	—	—	Normal
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	04:16 ET1 h ago	No sell	88.0%	334.2	$294	—	—	—	Normal
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	04:16 ET1 h ago	No sell	88.0%	630.1	$554	—	—	—	Normal
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	04:10 ET1 h ago	Yes buy	32.0%	1.0K	$320	—	—	—	Normal
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	03:56 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	16.0%	2.3K	$373	—	—	—	Normal
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	03:56 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	16.0%	7.3K	$1,170	—	—	—	Normal
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	03:56 ET2 h ago	No sell	89.0%	531.1	$473	—	—	—	Normal
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	03:56 ET2 h ago	No sell	89.0%	591	$526	—	—	—	Normal
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	03:45 ET2 h ago	No sell	78.0%	2.0K	$1,560	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	03:30 ET2 h ago	No sell	68.0%	15K	$10,008	34.5%	31.5%	−3.0 pts down	Large
Katie Volynets winsSports · Kalshi ↗	03:30 ET2 h ago	No sell	67.0%	15K	$10,008	34.5%	31.5%	−3.0 pts down	Large

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If Katie Volynets wins the Volynets vs Sasnovich professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Hong Kong Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Volynets vs Sasnovich professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Hong Kong Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Source: https://www.wtatennis.com/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.