KalshiSettledSports

Daniel Michalski wins

Michalski vs Holmgren

View on Kalshi ↗

This market has settled to NO. Prices below are the final observed values and no longer move.

Implied probability

1.0%

1.0¢ per contract

1 hour: —
24 hours: —
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $908K
Total volume: $957K
Liquidity: —
Open interest: 619,484
Spread: —
Best bid / ask: —
Closes: Nov 2, 03:35 ET
Status: settled

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

02:50 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $2,224 at 77%
02:55 ET EST
Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,408 at 35%
03:20 ET EST
Kalshi moves 20% → 23%
03:40 ET EST
Kalshi moves 23% → 1%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Daniel Michalski winsSports · Kalshi ↗	02:55 ET1 h ago	Yes buy	35.0%	4.0K	$1,408	—	—	—	Normal
Daniel Michalski winsSports · Kalshi ↗	02:50 ET2 h ago	No sell	77.0%	856	$659	—	—	—	Normal
Daniel Michalski winsSports · Kalshi ↗	02:50 ET2 h ago	No sell	77.0%	1.2K	$916	—	—	—	Normal
Daniel Michalski winsSports · Kalshi ↗	02:50 ET2 h ago	No sell	77.0%	2.9K	$2,224	—	—	—	Normal
Daniel Michalski winsSports · Kalshi ↗	02:25 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	37.0%	776.6	$287	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If Daniel Michalski wins the Michalski vs Holmgren professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Taipei Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Michalski vs Holmgren professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Taipei Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/

Related markets

Katie Volynets wins7.5% · $1.12M 24h
Aliaksandra Sasnovich wins92.5% · $861K 24h
PSG wins61.5% · $395K 24h
Will Chicago win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?7.5% · $306K 24h
Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?4.5% · $254K 24h
Newcastle wins43.5% · $238K 24h
Hugo Dellien wins55.5% · $224K 24h
Carol Young Suh Lee wins11.5% · $216K 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.