PolymarketOpenEconomicsGrade C · 75%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Fed Decision in December?

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

27.5%

27.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −1.0 pts down
7 days: +7.0 pts up

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $48,989
Total volume: $2.50M
Liquidity: $720K
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 27¢ / 28¢
Closes: Dec 9, 18:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

29.0¢53K

30.0¢322K

31.0¢55K

32.0¢7.9K

33.0¢6.1K

34.0¢11K

35.0¢5.5K

36.0¢5.0K

Buy NO (asks)

72.0¢1.1K

73.0¢328K

74.0¢721K

75.0¢76K

76.0¢4.1K

77.0¢2.0K

78.0¢458.4

79.0¢296.1

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Economics · Polymarket ↗	20:23 ET12 h ago	No buy	72.0%	881	$634	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched on the other venue

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting

KalshiGrade C · 75%

Compare venues →

Resolution

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.