PolymarketOpenEconomicsGrade C · 0%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Fed Decision in December?

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Implied probability

70.5%

70.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +1.0 pts up
7 days: −6.0 pts down

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $20,146
Total volume: $2.36M
Liquidity: $668K
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 70¢ / 71¢
Closes: Dec 9, 18:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

71.0¢34K

72.0¢553K

73.0¢750K

74.0¢25K

75.0¢6.2K

76.0¢6.2K

77.0¢5.7K

78.0¢5.1K

Buy NO (asks)

30.0¢12K

31.0¢303K

32.0¢8.7K

33.0¢11K

34.0¢588.3

35.0¢76.7

36.0¢3.2K

37.0¢4.6K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

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Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched on the other venue

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting

KalshiGrade C · 0%

Compare venues →

Resolution

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meetin…0.8% · $6.17M 24h
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?99.9% · $5.29M 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.