PolymarketOpenWorldGrade C · 66%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket prices Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? at 17.5%.
View on Polymarket ↗Implied probability
17.5%
17.5¢ per contract
- 1 hour
- 0.0 pts unchanged
- 24 hours
- +1.0 pts up
- 7 days
- −1.0 pts down
Polymarket
Market statistics
- 24h volume
- $185K
- Total volume
- $76.29M
- Liquidity
- $400K
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0¢
- Best bid / ask
- 17¢ / 18¢
- Closes
- Dec 31, 23:59 ET
- Status
- open
Order book
Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first
Buy YES (asks)
17.0¢729.9
18.0¢33K
19.0¢27K
20.0¢55K
21.0¢1.2K
22.0¢1.4K
23.0¢1.1K
24.0¢22.3
Buy NO (asks)
84.0¢74K
85.0¢235K
86.0¢63K
87.0¢127K
88.0¢11K
89.0¢11K
90.0¢16K
91.0¢13K
Why is this moving?
Evidence-grounded explanation
Explanation pending
An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.
Event timeline
Reconstructed from snapshots and trades
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $7,874 at 83%
- Large Polymarket YES execution: $22,100 at 17%
- Large Polymarket YES execution: $16,452 at 16%
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $167K at 84%
Largest recent trades
By notional value
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 04:35 ET13 min ago | No sell | 84.0% | 199K | $167K | — | — | — | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 04:19 ET28 min ago | Yes sell | 16.0% | 103K | $16,452 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 01:48 ET3 h ago | No buy | 83.0% | 3.0K | $2,490 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 00:39 ET4 h ago | Yes sell | 17.0% | 130K | $22,100 | 17.5% | 17.5% | 0.0 pts unchanged | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 15:38 ET13 h ago | No buy | 83.0% | 9.5K | $7,874 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 12:20 ET16 h ago | No sell | 83.0% | 9.0K | $7,437 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 03:30 ET1 d ago | No buy | 83.0% | 4.1K | $3,390 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 03:11 ET1 d ago | No buy | 83.0% | 13K | $11,094 | 17.5% | 17.5% | 0.0 pts unchanged | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 23:24 ET1 d ago | No buy | 83.0% | 2.0K | $1,660 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 20:09 ET1 d ago | No sell | 82.0% | 4.8K | $3,931 | 17.5% | 17.5% | 0.0 pts unchanged | Normal |
Most price-impactful trades
Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 00:39 ET4 h ago | Yes sell | 17.0% | 130K | $22,100 | 17.5% | 17.5% | 0.0 pts unchanged | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 03:11 ET1 d ago | No buy | 83.0% | 13K | $11,094 | 17.5% | 17.5% | 0.0 pts unchanged | Normal |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?World · Polymarket ↗ | 20:09 ET1 d ago | No sell | 82.0% | 4.8K | $3,931 | 17.5% | 17.5% | 0.0 pts unchanged | Normal |