PolymarketOpenWorld

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

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Implied probability

99.9%

99.9¢ per contract

1 hour: +0.3 pts up
24 hours: +0.8 pts up
7 days: +13.9 pts up

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $259K
Total volume: $4.44M
Liquidity: $71,831
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.1¢
Best bid / ask: 100¢ / 100¢
Closes: Oct 31, 16:29 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

03:08 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $15,720 at 100%
06:59 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $9,252 at 100%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?World · Polymarket ↗	06:59 ET3 h ago	Yes buy	99.8%	9.3K	$9,252	99.7%	100.0%	+0.3 pts up	Elevated
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?World · Polymarket ↗	03:08 ET7 h ago	Yes buy	99.7%	16K	$15,720	99.4%	99.8%	+0.4 pts up	Elevated

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?World · Polymarket ↗	03:08 ET7 h ago	Yes buy	99.7%	16K	$15,720	99.4%	99.8%	+0.4 pts up	Elevated
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?World · Polymarket ↗	06:59 ET3 h ago	Yes buy	99.8%	9.3K	$9,252	99.7%	100.0%	+0.3 pts up	Elevated

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not co…

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?89.5% · $48,420 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?99.4% · $43,008 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?95.1% · $41,132 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.