PolymarketOpenPolitics

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Michigan Senate Election Winner

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

78.5%

78.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +4.0 pts up
7 days: +7.0 pts up

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $883K
Total volume: $2.98M
Liquidity: $599K
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 78¢ / 79¢
Closes: Nov 3, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

79.0¢9.0K

80.0¢26K

81.0¢84K

82.0¢380K

83.0¢51K

84.0¢88K

85.0¢197K

86.0¢5.2K

Buy NO (asks)

22.0¢18K

23.0¢31K

24.0¢207K

25.0¢248K

26.0¢22K

27.0¢10K

28.0¢5.0K

29.0¢2.0K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

20:08 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $1,580 at 79%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:08 ET7 h ago	Yes buy	79.0%	2.0K	$1,580	78.5%	78.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:08 ET7 h ago	Yes buy	79.0%	2.0K	$1,580	78.5%	78.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.