PolymarketOpenWorld

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

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Implied probability

96.4%

96.4¢ per contract

1 hour: +1.0 pts up
24 hours: +4.5 pts up
7 days: —

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $155K
Total volume: $418K
Liquidity: $78,777
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.1¢
Best bid / ask: 96¢ / 96¢
Closes: Nov 2, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

96.5¢979

96.6¢246

96.7¢300

96.8¢15K

96.9¢109.2

97.0¢5.6K

97.2¢800

97.3¢100

Buy NO (asks)

3.7¢398.8

3.8¢869

3.9¢20

4.0¢3.9K

4.1¢2.0K

4.2¢53

4.3¢50

4.4¢106

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

22:21 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $3,899 at 94%
01:07 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $5,306 at 94%
01:09 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $4,542 at 94%
04:24 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $4,660 at 96%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?World · Polymarket ↗	04:24 ET21 min ago	Yes buy	96.4%	4.8K	$4,660	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?World · Polymarket ↗	01:14 ET5 h ago	Yes buy	94.6%	3.2K	$3,011	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?World · Polymarket ↗	01:09 ET5 h ago	Yes buy	94.0%	4.8K	$4,542	94.0%	94.3%	+0.3 pts up	Elevated
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?World · Polymarket ↗	01:07 ET5 h ago	Yes buy	94.0%	5.6K	$5,306	94.0%	94.3%	+0.3 pts up	Elevated
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?World · Polymarket ↗	23:29 ET6 h ago	Yes buy	94.0%	2.4K	$2,227	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?World · Polymarket ↗	22:21 ET7 h ago	Yes buy	94.0%	4.1K	$3,899	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?World · Polymarket ↗	22:20 ET7 h ago	Yes buy	94.0%	2.4K	$2,227	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?World · Polymarket ↗	01:07 ET5 h ago	Yes buy	94.0%	5.6K	$5,306	94.0%	94.3%	+0.3 pts up	Elevated
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?World · Polymarket ↗	01:09 ET5 h ago	Yes buy	94.0%	4.8K	$4,542	94.0%	94.3%	+0.3 pts up	Elevated

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including…

Related markets

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?98.3% · $305K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?99.9% · $302K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?99.4% · $222K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?99.2% · $162K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?96.5% · $150K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?99.7% · $83,601 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?96.8% · $81,590 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?25.5% · $66,003 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.