PolymarketOpenWorld

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

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Implied probability

24.5%

24.5¢ per contract

1 hour: −0.5 pts down
24 hours: −3.0 pts down
7 days: −4.0 pts down

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $66,003
Total volume: $991K
Liquidity: $68,556
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 24¢ / 25¢
Closes: Dec 31, 18:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

25.0¢10

26.0¢473

27.0¢24K

28.0¢17K

29.0¢15K

30.0¢352.4

31.0¢184.9

34.0¢100

Buy NO (asks)

76.0¢10K

77.0¢23K

78.0¢14K

79.0¢14K

80.0¢376.3

81.0¢47.9

84.0¢2.6K

85.0¢5.0K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

00:05 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $3,568 at 74%
01:34 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $4,100 at 75%
01:40 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $2,400 at 75%
01:11 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $2,539 at 75%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	02:23 ET4 h ago	Yes buy	25.0%	7.7K	$1,919	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	01:18 ET5 h ago	No buy	77.0%	2.8K	$2,151	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	01:11 ET5 h ago	No buy	75.0%	3.4K	$2,539	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	01:40 ET5 h ago	No buy	75.0%	3.2K	$2,400	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	01:34 ET5 h ago	No buy	74.8%	5.5K	$4,100	26.5%	26.0%	−0.5 pts down	Elevated
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	00:05 ET7 h ago	No sell	74.0%	4.8K	$3,568	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	01:34 ET5 h ago	No buy	74.8%	5.5K	$4,100	26.5%	26.0%	−0.5 pts down	Elevated

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including…

Related markets

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US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?99.2% · $162K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?96.5% · $150K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?96.4% · $149K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?99.7% · $83,601 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?96.8% · $81,590 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.