PolymarketOpenWorld

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

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Implied probability

59.0%

59.0¢ per contract

1 hour: +4.5 pts up
24 hours: +6.5 pts up
7 days: +9.5 pts up

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $165K
Total volume: $1.00M
Liquidity: $61,757
Open interest: —
Spread: 2.0¢
Best bid / ask: 58¢ / 60¢
Closes: Nov 15, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

59.0¢233.5

60.0¢654.8

61.0¢4.9K

62.0¢5

63.0¢245.9

64.0¢1.7K

65.0¢5.1K

66.0¢136.4

Buy NO (asks)

43.0¢1.7K

44.0¢750

45.0¢759.8

46.0¢185.1

47.0¢400

48.0¢50

49.0¢1.8K

50.0¢4.0K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

10:04 ET EST
Large Polymarket YES execution: $2,476 at 62%
13:02 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $3,300 at 35%
16:45 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $3,189 at 49%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?World · Polymarket ↗	16:45 ET2 h ago	No buy	48.5%	6.6K	$3,189	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?World · Polymarket ↗	13:02 ET5 h ago	No sell	34.8%	9.5K	$3,300	—	—	—	Normal
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?World · Polymarket ↗	10:04 ET8 h ago	Yes buy	61.9%	4.0K	$2,476	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including…

Related markets

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?98.3% · $305K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?99.9% · $302K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?73.5% · $259K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?99.4% · $222K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?93.1% · $219K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?85.5% · $178K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?96.5% · $150K 24h
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?99.3% · $117K 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.