US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
- 1 hour
- +0.1 pts up
- 24 hours
- −2.7 pts down
- 7 days
- −6.2 pts down
Market statistics
- 24h volume
- $185K
- Total volume
- $6.95M
- Liquidity
- $82,567
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- —
- Best bid / ask
- —
- Closes
- Oct 31, 23:59 ET
- Status
- open
Order book
Order book unavailable
The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.
Why is this moving?
US-Iran blockade market drops to 0.3% amid low liquidity
Weak evidenceThe implied probability for the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026, is currently 0.3%.
Over the last 24 hours, the price fell by 2.4 percentage points, moving from 2.6% to 0.3%.
In the most recent hour, the price decreased by a further 0.3 percentage points.
Over the past seven days, the market has declined by 7.2 percentage points.
Trading volume in the last 24 hours was $185K, with estimated resting liquidity of $82,567.
The sustained decline over 24 hours and 7 days suggests a gradual loss of confidence in this specific outcome occurring within the timeframe.
The drop to near-zero pricing (0.3%) indicates traders view the event as highly unlikely, though the evidence does not specify which geopolitical developments drove this sentiment shift.
- Evidence contains no news articles or official statements explaining the cause of the price movement.
Evidence score 9/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.
Event timeline
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $6,361 at 99%
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $8,979 at 99%
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $5,921 at 100%
- Large Polymarket NO execution: $10,525 at 100%
Largest recent trades
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗ | 01:08 ET4 h ago | No sell | 99.9% | 11K | $10,525 | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.1 pts up | Normal |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗ | 00:35 ET5 h ago | No sell | 99.9% | 5.9K | $5,921 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0 pts unchanged | Normal |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗ | 23:15 ET6 h ago | No sell | 99.4% | 9.0K | $8,979 | 0.3% | 0.4% | +0.1 pts up | Normal |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗ | 22:40 ET7 h ago | No buy | 99.9% | 2.8K | $2,757 | — | — | — | Normal |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗ | 21:30 ET8 h ago | No sell | 99.4% | 6.4K | $6,361 | — | — | — | Normal |
Most price-impactful trades
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗ | 01:08 ET4 h ago | No sell | 99.9% | 11K | $10,525 | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.1 pts up | Normal |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗ | 23:15 ET6 h ago | No sell | 99.4% | 9.0K | $8,979 | 0.3% | 0.4% | +0.1 pts up | Normal |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗ | 00:35 ET5 h ago | No sell | 99.9% | 5.9K | $5,921 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0 pts unchanged | Normal |