PolymarketOpenWorld

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

41.1%

41.1¢ per contract

1 hour: −2.0 pts down
24 hours: −3.6 pts down
7 days: +5.4 pts up

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $57,863
Total volume: $4.63M
Liquidity: $156K
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.7¢
Best bid / ask: 41¢ / 42¢
Closes: Dec 31, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

41.5¢23.7

41.7¢7.8

41.8¢38.3

41.9¢636.7

42.1¢19.8

42.2¢154

42.3¢536.7

42.4¢967

Buy NO (asks)

59.2¢2.0K

59.3¢3.0K

59.4¢1.6K

59.5¢82.5

59.6¢1.1K

59.7¢212.8

59.8¢288.2

59.9¢3.6K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

20:38 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $4,174 at 57%
20:38 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $1,130 at 56%
03:12 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $2,649 at 57%
03:24 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $7,154 at 57%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗	03:24 ET1 h ago	No buy	57.4%	12K	$7,154	43.0%	41.8%	−1.3 pts down	Large
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗	03:12 ET1 h ago	No buy	56.9%	4.7K	$2,649	—	—	—	Normal
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗	20:38 ET9 h ago	No sell	56.0%	2.0K	$1,130	—	—	—	Normal
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗	20:38 ET9 h ago	No sell	57.3%	7.3K	$4,174	42.3%	43.6%	+1.4 pts up	Large

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗	03:24 ET1 h ago	No buy	57.4%	12K	$7,154	43.0%	41.8%	−1.3 pts down	Large
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?World · Polymarket ↗	20:38 ET9 h ago	No sell	57.3%	7.3K	$4,174	42.3%	43.6%	+1.4 pts up	Large

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspens…

Related markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?12.5% · $350K 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?0.3% · $185K 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?3.7% · $140K 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?0.1% · $80,987 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?0.1% · $79,273 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?7.5% · $68,586 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?29.5% · $36,539 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?13.5% · $26,529 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.