Spread: Bills (-3.5)

The implied probability for the Bills (-3.5) spread is currently priced at 86.5%.

Over the last 24 hours, the market moved +40.0 points, rising from 46.5% to 86.5%.

In the most recent hour, the price increased by 13.0 points.

On a seven-day basis, the market has gained 22.5 points.

Trading volume over the past 24 hours was $174K.

Estimated resting liquidity stands at $59,417 with a bid-ask spread of 1.0¢.

Timeline data shows a drop from 81% to 76% at 14:35 ET, followed by a rise from 76% to 87% at 15:00 ET.

The significant 24-hour increase (+40.0 pts) and recent hourly gain (+13.0 pts) indicate strong buying pressure or new information favoring the Bills covering the spread, though specific news drivers are not present in the evidence.

The volatility observed between 14:35 and 15:00 ET (a dip then sharp recovery) suggests active re-pricing during this window, potentially driven by late-breaking team news or line movement elsewhere.

With $174K in volume against $59K in resting liquidity, the market depth is sufficient to support the observed price shifts without extreme slippage, indicating liquid participation in the move.