PolymarketOpenWorld

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

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Implied probability

6.5%

6.5¢ per contract

1 hour: —
24 hours: —
7 days: —

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $17,490
Total volume: $1.08M
Liquidity: $150K
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 6¢ / 7¢
Closes: Dec 31, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

8.0¢13K

9.0¢39K

10.0¢10K

11.0¢2.4K

12.0¢6.8K

13.0¢30K

14.0¢32.2

15.0¢210

Buy NO (asks)

94.0¢13K

95.0¢90K

96.0¢190K

97.0¢12K

98.0¢18K

99.0¢79K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	09:59 ET1 d ago	No sell	93.0%	2.5K	$2,325	—	—	—	Normal
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	05:46 ET1 d ago	No sell	93.0%	5.0K	$4,650	6.5%	6.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	05:27 ET1 d ago	No buy	94.0%	5.0K	$4,700	6.5%	6.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	04:52 ET1 d ago	No buy	94.0%	5.0K	$4,700	6.5%	6.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	04:51 ET1 d ago	No buy	94.0%	5.0K	$4,700	6.5%	6.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	05:46 ET1 d ago	No sell	93.0%	5.0K	$4,650	6.5%	6.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	05:27 ET1 d ago	No buy	94.0%	5.0K	$4,700	6.5%	6.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	04:52 ET1 d ago	No buy	94.0%	5.0K	$4,700	6.5%	6.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?World · Polymarket ↗	04:51 ET1 d ago	No buy	94.0%	5.0K	$4,700	6.5%	6.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.