PolymarketOpenPolitics

Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas?

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

0.1%

0.1¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: 0.0 pts unchanged
7 days: —

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $90,666
Total volume: $170K
Liquidity: $1.27M
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.1¢
Best bid / ask: 0¢ / 0¢
Closes: Nov 3, 18:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

0.2¢127K

0.3¢9.1K

0.4¢244.7

0.5¢1.1M

0.6¢200

0.7¢9.2K

0.9¢250

1.0¢160

Buy NO (asks)

99.9¢13.5M

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

03:18 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $5,025 at 100%
03:19 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $4,985 at 100%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas?Politics · Polymarket ↗	03:19 ET58 min ago	No buy	99.9%	5.0K	$4,985	—	—	—	Normal
Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas?Politics · Polymarket ↗	03:18 ET59 min ago	No buy	99.9%	5.0K	$5,025	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.