KalshiOpenPolitics

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont

Vermont Governor winner?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

66.5%

66.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −10.5 pts down
7 days: −10.0 pts down

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $147K
Total volume: $526K
Liquidity: $22,017
Open interest: 299,653
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 66¢ / 67¢
Closes: Nov 3, 11:00 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

67.0¢27K

68.0¢881.7

69.0¢56K

70.0¢20

71.0¢1.1K

72.0¢6.1K

73.0¢123.2

74.0¢100

Buy NO (asks)

34.0¢7.8K

35.0¢22K

36.0¢61K

37.0¢12K

38.0¢6.7K

39.0¢2.1K

40.0¢6.0K

41.0¢10

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

21:21 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $7,150 at 26%
21:21 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $7,150 at 26%
21:22 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $2,256 at 28%
22:04 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $2,893 at 34%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Republican party win the governorship in VermontPolitics · Kalshi ↗	22:04 ET1 h ago	No sell	34.0%	8.5K	$2,893	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Republican party win the governorship in VermontPolitics · Kalshi ↗	21:22 ET2 h ago	No sell	28.0%	8.1K	$2,256	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Republican party win the governorship in VermontPolitics · Kalshi ↗	21:21 ET2 h ago	No sell	26.0%	28K	$7,150	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Republican party win the governorship in VermontPolitics · Kalshi ↗	21:21 ET2 h ago	No sell	26.0%	28K	$7,150	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Vermont pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Source: https://sos.vermont.gov

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.