KalshiOpenPolitics

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont

Vermont Governor winner?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

33.5%

33.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +8.5 pts up
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $48,999
Total volume: $365K
Liquidity: $13,625
Open interest: 180,233
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 33¢ / 34¢
Closes: Nov 3, 11:00 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

34.0¢8.5K

35.0¢24K

36.0¢61K

37.0¢11K

38.0¢5.0K

39.0¢2.0K

40.0¢11K

41.0¢131

Buy NO (asks)

67.0¢27K

68.0¢633.5

69.0¢56K

70.0¢20

71.0¢450

72.0¢5.5K

73.0¢508.5

74.0¢42

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

21:25 ET EST
Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,700 at 34%
21:25 ET EST
Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,650 at 33%
21:25 ET EST
Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,280 at 32%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in VermontPolitics · Kalshi ↗	21:30 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	34.0%	2.6K	$888	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in VermontPolitics · Kalshi ↗	21:25 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	32.0%	4.0K	$1,280	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in VermontPolitics · Kalshi ↗	21:25 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	33.0%	5.0K	$1,650	—	—	—	Normal
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in VermontPolitics · Kalshi ↗	21:25 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	34.0%	5.0K	$1,700	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Vermont pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Source: https://sos.vermont.gov

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.