KalshiOpenPolitics

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio

Ohio Governor winner?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

79.5%

79.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −0.5 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $125K
Total volume: $2.34M
Liquidity: $43,655
Open interest: 1,661,817
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 79¢ / 80¢
Closes: Nov 3, 11:00 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

80.0¢56K

81.0¢21K

82.0¢39K

83.0¢561.2

84.0¢17K

85.0¢1.5K

86.0¢970.6

87.0¢273

Buy NO (asks)

21.0¢24K

22.0¢45K

23.0¢136.1

24.0¢2.4K

25.0¢3.6K

26.0¢9.1K

27.0¢2.5K

28.0¢503

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

02:00 ET EST
Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,972 at 80%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in OhioPolitics · Kalshi ↗	02:00 ET5 h ago	Yes buy	80.0%	2.5K	$1,972	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Ohio pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Source: https://www.ohiosos.gov

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.