KalshiOpenPolitics

Will Trump say "Autism" before Nov 1, 2026?

What will Trump say in October?

View on Kalshi ↗

Closing soon — trading ends 8 h from now at Nov 1, 10:00 ET. Liquidity often thins out near the close.

Implied probability

98.5%

98.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +3.5 pts up
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $1.09M
Total volume: $1.27M
Liquidity: $74,207
Open interest: 1,095,777
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 98¢ / 99¢
Closes: Nov 1, 10:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

99.0¢1.7K

Buy NO (asks)

2.0¢6.5K

3.0¢54K

4.0¢25K

5.0¢17K

6.0¢8.0K

7.0¢7.0K

8.0¢19K

9.0¢13K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

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Largest recent trades

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Most price-impactful trades

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Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If Autism, or a plural or possessive form of Autism, is stated by Donald Trump after October 1, 2026 at 10:00am ET and before Nov 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Payout criteria The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. Grammatical/tense inflections.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.