Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
- 1 hour
- 0.0 pts unchanged
- 24 hours
- −1.5 pts down
- 7 days
- —
Market statistics
- 24h volume
- $157K
- Total volume
- $2.59M
- Liquidity
- $4,044
- Open interest
- 1,580,863
- Spread
- 1.0¢
- Best bid / ask
- 47¢ / 48¢
- Closes
- Feb 1, 10:00 ET
- Status
- open
Order book
Why is this moving?
Democratic seat market rises on late YES buying
Moderate evidenceThe Kalshi implied probability for the Democratic Party holding more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress is currently 49.5%.
The market price increased by 2.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours, moving from 47.0% to 49.5%.
At 20:38 ET, three large YES executions occurred: $5,000 at 50%, $1,724 at 49%, and $1,717 at 50%.
Following these trades, the price rose by 1.0 point within five minutes.
The concentrated buying of YES contracts at 20:38 ET likely contributed to the immediate short-term price increase observed shortly after.
The overall 24-hour upward trend may reflect broader market sentiment shifts or accumulation of positions leading up to the late-day activity.
- The evidence does not specify external news events driving the sentiment change.
Evidence score 35/100. Ordering in time establishes correlation, not causation. Narrative written by qwen/qwen3.8-flash from a fixed evidence package and validated against it before publication; every figure is computed by ProudGlobeHead Markets.
Event timeline
- Large Kalshi YES execution: $5,000 at 50%
- Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,724 at 49%
- Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,717 at 50%
Largest recent trades
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?Politics · Kalshi ↗ | 22:18 ET3 h ago | Yes buy | 50.0% | 5.0K | $2,500 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?Politics · Kalshi ↗ | 22:18 ET3 h ago | Yes buy | 50.0% | 5.0K | $2,500 | — | — | — | Normal |
| Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?Politics · Kalshi ↗ | 20:38 ET5 h ago | Yes buy | 50.0% | 3.4K | $1,717 | 48.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pts up | Elevated |
| Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?Politics · Kalshi ↗ | 20:38 ET5 h ago | Yes buy | 49.0% | 3.5K | $1,724 | 48.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pts up | Elevated |
| Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?Politics · Kalshi ↗ | 20:38 ET5 h ago | Yes buy | 50.0% | 10K | $5,000 | 48.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pts up | Elevated |
Most price-impactful trades
| Market | Time | Side | Price | Size | Notional | Before | +5 min | Move | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?Politics · Kalshi ↗ | 20:38 ET5 h ago | Yes buy | 50.0% | 10K | $5,000 | 48.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pts up | Elevated |
| Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?Politics · Kalshi ↗ | 20:38 ET5 h ago | Yes buy | 50.0% | 3.4K | $1,717 | 48.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pts up | Elevated |
| Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?Politics · Kalshi ↗ | 20:38 ET5 h ago | Yes buy | 49.0% | 3.5K | $1,724 | 48.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pts up | Elevated |