KalshiOpenPolitics

Will the Democratic Party hold 52 seats in the 120th Congress?

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

13.5%

13.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −0.5 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $38,678
Total volume: $1.50M
Liquidity: $8,786
Open interest: 969,054
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 13¢ / 14¢
Closes: Feb 1, 10:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

15.0¢33K

16.0¢2.3K

17.0¢366.3

18.0¢0

19.0¢1.0K

20.0¢2.0K

21.0¢305.3

22.0¢25

Buy NO (asks)

86.0¢84K

87.0¢47K

88.0¢7.1K

89.0¢2.2K

90.0¢30

90.1¢7

90.2¢2

90.3¢1

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

03:30 ET EST
Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,703 at 14%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Democratic Party hold 52 seats in the 120th Congress?Politics · Kalshi ↗	03:30 ET3 h ago	Yes buy	14.0%	12K	$1,703	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If the Democratic Party has exactly 52 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Source: https://www.congress.gov/

Related markets

Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?47.5% · $149K 24h
Will the Democratic Party hold 48 seats in the 120th Congress?5.1% · $95,753 24h
Will the Democratic Party hold 47 seats in the 120th Congress?4.8% · $90,549 24h
Will the Democratic Party hold 45 seats in the 120th Congress?1.3% · $80,714 24h
Will the Democratic Party hold 46 seats in the 120th Congress?2.1% · $72,050 24h
Will the Democratic Party hold 50 seats in the 120th Congress?9.6% · $69,672 24h
Will the Democratic Party hold 49 seats in the 120th Congress?5.6% · $68,462 24h
Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress?1.5% · $45,135 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.