KalshiOpenPolitics

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota?

Minnesota Senate winner?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

9.4%

9.4¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −0.1 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $184K
Total volume: $994K
Liquidity: $39.00
Open interest: 2,662,687
Spread: 0.5¢
Best bid / ask: 9¢ / 10¢
Closes: Nov 3, 11:00 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

9.7¢857

9.8¢25K

9.9¢53K

10.0¢42K

11.0¢313K

12.0¢47K

13.0¢716

14.0¢6.6K

Buy NO (asks)

90.8¢635

90.9¢31K

91.0¢2.3K

91.2¢19.8

91.3¢500

91.8¢25K

92.0¢2.0K

92.4¢14K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

19:51 ET EDT
Large Kalshi NO execution: $2,637 at 91%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota?Politics · Kalshi ↗	19:51 ET15 h ago	No sell	90.8%	2.9K	$2,637	9.3%	9.3%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota?Politics · Kalshi ↗	19:51 ET15 h ago	No sell	90.8%	2.9K	$2,637	9.3%	9.3%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Minnesota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Source: https://www.congress.gov/

Related markets

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.