KalshiOpenPolitics

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Blue wave in 2026?

View on Kalshi ↗

Implied probability

84.5%

84.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −0.5 pts down
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $172K
Total volume: $3.73M
Liquidity: $193K
Open interest: 2,735,984
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 84¢ / 85¢
Closes: Feb 1, 10:00 ET
Status: open

Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

85.0¢144K

86.0¢42K

87.0¢1.0K

88.0¢64

89.0¢5.4K

90.0¢7

90.2¢6.8K

90.9¢2.0K

Buy NO (asks)

16.0¢205K

17.0¢20K

18.0¢21K

19.0¢3.3K

20.0¢26K

21.0¢873

22.0¢15K

23.0¢12K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

20:35 ET EDT
Large Kalshi YES execution: $1,700 at 85%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate afte…Politics · Kalshi ↗	20:35 ET10 h ago	Yes buy	85.0%	2.0K	$1,700	84.5%	84.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate afte…Politics · Kalshi ↗	20:35 ET10 h ago	Yes buy	85.0%	2.0K	$1,700	84.5%	84.5%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Source: https://www.house.gov/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.