KalshiSettledSports

Sebastian Baez wins

Merida vs Baez

View on Kalshi ↗

This market has settled to NO. Prices below are the final observed values and no longer move.

Implied probability

1.0%

1.0¢ per contract

1 hour: −25.5 pts down
24 hours: —
7 days: —

Kalshi

Market statistics

24h volume: $973K
Total volume: $973K
Liquidity: —
Open interest: 610,555
Spread: —
Best bid / ask: —
Closes: Nov 2, 10:01 ET
Status: settled

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

09:15 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $5,261 at 72%
09:35 ET EST
Kalshi moves 28% → 4%
09:45 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $3,163 at 99%
09:45 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $2,970 at 99%
09:45 ET EST
Large Kalshi NO execution: $2,475 at 99%
10:15 ET EST
Kalshi moves 6% → 1%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Sebastian Baez winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:45 ET1 h ago	No sell	99.0%	2.5K	$2,475	—	—	—	Normal
Sebastian Baez winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:45 ET1 h ago	No sell	99.0%	3.0K	$2,970	—	—	—	Normal
Sebastian Baez winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:45 ET1 h ago	No sell	99.0%	3.2K	$3,163	—	—	—	Normal
Sebastian Baez winsSports · Kalshi ↗	09:15 ET2 h ago	No sell	72.0%	7.3K	$5,261	—	—	—	Normal
Sebastian Baez winsSports · Kalshi ↗	08:56 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	42.0%	3.9K	$1,642	—	—	—	Normal
Sebastian Baez winsSports · Kalshi ↗	08:36 ET2 h ago	Yes buy	31.0%	5.2K	$1,597	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

If Sebastian Baez wins the Merida vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Paris Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Merida vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Paris Round Of 64 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.