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KalshiSettledSports

Lilli Tagger wins

Tagger vs Dart

View on Kalshi ↗
This market has settled to NO. Prices below are the final observed values and no longer move.
Implied probability
39.5%
39.5¢ per contract
1 hour
—
24 hours
—
7 days
—
Kalshi
Lilli Tagger wins implied probability. Kalshi moved from 87% to 1%. Times shown in EST.0%20%40%60%80%100%04:20 ET04:45 ET05:10 ET05:35 ET06:00 ET$1,507 NO at 71.0%$1,879 NO at 60.0%$1,642 YES at 59.0%$2,568 YES at 65.0%$1,721 YES at 58.0%$2,509 YES at 40.0%$2,395 YES at 63.0%$2,782 YES at 63.0%

Market statistics

24h volume
$1.09M
Total volume
$1.16M
Liquidity
—
Open interest
434,420
Spread
1.0¢
Best bid / ask
39¢ / 40¢
Closes
Nov 1, 05:56 ET
Status
settled
Hourly volume

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades
  1. Large Kalshi YES execution: $6,800 at 85%
  2. Large Kalshi NO execution: $6,349 at 16%
  3. Kalshi moves 35% → 62%
  4. Large Kalshi YES execution: $3,629 at 63%
  5. Large Kalshi YES execution: $2,782 at 63%
  6. Kalshi moves 62% → 40%
  7. Kalshi moves 40% → 50%
  8. Kalshi moves 50% → 1%

Largest recent trades

By notional value
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:51 ET2 h agoNo sell71.0%2.1K$1,507———Normal
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:35 ET3 h agoNo sell60.0%3.1K$1,879———Normal
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:35 ET3 h agoYes buy59.0%2.8K$1,642———Normal
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:34 ET3 h agoYes buy65.0%4.0K$2,568———Normal
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:33 ET3 h agoYes buy58.0%3.0K$1,721———Normal
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:30 ET3 h agoYes buy40.0%6.3K$2,509———Normal
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:25 ET3 h agoYes buy63.0%3.8K$2,395———Normal
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:25 ET3 h agoYes buy63.0%4.4K$2,782———Normal
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:25 ET3 h agoYes buy63.0%5.8K$3,629———Normal
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗05:05 ET3 h agoYes buy75.0%3.4K$2,548———Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest
MarketTimeSidePriceSizeNotionalBefore+5 minMoveImpact
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗04:42 ET3 h agoYes buy83.0%7.8K$6,46581.5%84.5%+3.0 pts upExceptional
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗04:20 ET4 h agoYes buy87.0%15K$13,33386.5%88.5%+2.0 pts upLarge
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗03:49 ET4 h agoYes buy90.0%5.0K$4,50090.5%86.5%−4.0 pts downLarge
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗04:46 ET3 h agoYes buy85.0%8.0K$6,80084.0%85.5%+1.5 pts upLarge
Lilli Tagger winsSports · Kalshi ↗04:47 ET3 h agoNo sell16.0%40K$6,34984.0%85.5%+1.5 pts upLarge