PolymarketOpenPolitics

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

3.9%

3.9¢ per contract

1 hour: +0.1 pts up
24 hours: −0.1 pts down
7 days: −3.2 pts down

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $75,175
Total volume: $485K
Liquidity: $844K
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.3¢
Best bid / ask: 4¢ / 4¢
Closes: —
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

4.0¢1.9K

4.1¢3.5K

4.2¢2.4K

4.4¢780

4.6¢200

4.7¢444

4.8¢757

4.9¢50

Buy NO (asks)

96.3¢126K

96.4¢3.2K

96.7¢530

97.0¢2.3K

97.2¢50

97.3¢440

97.4¢50K

97.5¢15K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

20:28 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $48,150 at 96%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:28 ET3 h ago	No buy	96.3%	50K	$48,150	3.9%	3.8%	−0.1 pts down	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics · Polymarket ↗	20:28 ET3 h ago	No buy	96.3%	50K	$48,150	3.9%	3.8%	−0.1 pts down	Normal

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under w…

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.