PolymarketOpenPolitics

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

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Implied probability

93.5%

93.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: +0.5 pts up
7 days: +8.0 pts up

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $93,134
Total volume: $466K
Liquidity: $172K
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 93¢ / 94¢
Closes: Nov 3, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

94.0¢23K

95.0¢6.1K

96.0¢20K

97.0¢27K

98.0¢31K

99.0¢30K

Buy NO (asks)

7.0¢22K

8.0¢4.3K

9.0¢39K

10.0¢14K

11.0¢21K

12.0¢12K

13.0¢175

14.0¢2.0K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.