PolymarketOpenFinance

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Crude Oil all time high by...?

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

13.5%

13.5¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: −4.0 pts down
7 days: −0.5 pts down

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $70,829
Total volume: $2.25M
Liquidity: $113K
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 13¢ / 14¢
Closes: Dec 31, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

14.0¢8.5K

15.0¢11K

16.0¢11K

17.0¢10K

18.0¢7.3K

19.0¢1.5K

20.0¢5.3K

21.0¢5.5K

Buy NO (asks)

87.0¢30K

88.0¢21K

89.0¢7.4K

90.0¢4.3K

91.0¢8.2K

92.0¢21K

93.0¢476.2

94.0¢4.3K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

08:04 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $4,545 at 84%
08:05 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $13,800 at 84%
09:27 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $4,250 at 85%
09:27 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $2,737 at 85%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Finance · Polymarket ↗	09:27 ET4 h ago	No buy	85.0%	3.2K	$2,737	—	—	—	Normal
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Finance · Polymarket ↗	09:27 ET4 h ago	No buy	85.0%	5.0K	$4,250	—	—	—	Normal
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Finance · Polymarket ↗	08:34 ET4 h ago	No buy	85.0%	2.7K	$2,313	—	—	—	Normal
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Finance · Polymarket ↗	08:32 ET5 h ago	No buy	85.0%	2.7K	$2,313	—	—	—	Normal
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Finance · Polymarket ↗	08:05 ET5 h ago	No buy	84.0%	16K	$13,800	16.5%	15.5%	−1.0 pts down	Large
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Finance · Polymarket ↗	08:04 ET5 h ago	No buy	84.0%	5.4K	$4,545	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Finance · Polymarket ↗	08:05 ET5 h ago	No buy	84.0%	16K	$13,800	16.5%	15.5%	−1.0 pts down	Large

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the…

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html

Related markets

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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?99.9% · $117K 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18?99.9% · $94,265 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 15?0.1% · $76,958 24h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?99.9% · $76,033 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 22?1.5% · $75,461 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.