PolymarketOpenEconomicsGrade C · 69%

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Implied probability

0.1%

0.1¢ per contract

1 hour: —
24 hours: —
7 days: —

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $5,000
Total volume: $3.03M
Liquidity: $226K
Open interest: —
Spread: —
Best bid / ask: —
Closes: Dec 31, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

0.1¢10K

0.2¢31K

0.3¢5

0.4¢1.1K

0.5¢16K

0.6¢2.1K

0.7¢106

0.8¢106

Buy NO (asks)

No resting size

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched on the other venue

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026

KalshiGrade C · 69%

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Resolution

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

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Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.