PolymarketOpenOtherGrade C · 64%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

0.1%

0.1¢ per contract

1 hour: 0.0 pts unchanged
24 hours: —
7 days: −0.3 pts down

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $20,016
Total volume: $4.35M
Liquidity: $542K
Open interest: —
Spread: —
Best bid / ask: —
Closes: Oct 31, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

0.1¢76K

0.2¢135K

0.3¢12K

0.4¢150

0.5¢130.3

0.6¢230

0.7¢30

0.8¢22K

Buy NO (asks)

No resting size

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

03:50 ET EST
Large Polymarket NO execution: $59,492 at 100%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Other · Polymarket ↗	03:50 ET39 min ago	No sell	99.9%	60K	$59,492	0.1%	0.1%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Other · Polymarket ↗	03:50 ET39 min ago	No sell	99.9%	60K	$59,492	0.1%	0.1%	0.0 pts unchanged	Normal

Matched on the other venue

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31

KalshiGrade C · 64%

Compare venues →

Resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for c…

Source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730

Related markets

Washington vs. USC0.1% · $3.19M 24h
LSU vs. Ole Miss0.1% · $2.74M 24h
Florida vs. Missouri1.0% · $2.03M 24h
SMU vs. Louisville0.1% · $1.77M 24h
Alabama vs. Mississippi State99.9% · $1.51M 24h
Florida State vs. Alabama1.9% · $1.44M 24h
Kentucky vs. South Carolina99.0% · $1.06M 24h
Fresno State vs. San Jose State99.9% · $959K 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.