Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?

The implied probability for SS Lazio winning dropped from 67.5% to 34.5% over the last 24 hours, a decline of 33.0 points.

Within that period, the price fell sharply from 57% to 27% at 10:40 ET.

Subsequently, the price surged from 27% to 100% between 11:00 and 11:02 ET.

Large YES executions occurred during this volatility: $50,000 at 65% (08:47 ET), $43,608 at 91% and $30,000 at 97% (both 10:53 ET), and $87,307 at 100% (11:02 ET).

Total 24-hour trading volume was $698K with resting liquidity estimated at $86,739.

The extreme price movement from 27% to 100% coincides with significant buy orders, suggesting aggressive buying pressure or potential settlement-related activity drove the final surge.

The earlier drop to 27% followed by a rebound indicates high volatility and possible disagreement among traders about the outcome prior to the late-stage spike.

Given the low resting liquidity relative to the size of individual trades (e.g., $87K trade vs $86K liquidity), the market is susceptible to large price impacts from single transactions.

It is unclear whether the move to 100% reflects genuine consensus on a win or an artifact of thin liquidity and specific order flow.