PolymarketOpenSports

Cavaliers vs. Bucks

View on Polymarket ↗

Implied probability

99.9%

99.9¢ per contract

1 hour: +1.4 pts up
24 hours: +23.4 pts up
7 days: +29.4 pts up

Polymarket

Market statistics

24h volume: $813K
Total volume: $732K
Liquidity: $249K
Open interest: —
Spread: 0.1¢
Best bid / ask: 100¢ / 100¢
Closes: Oct 31, 20:00 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Order book unavailable

The venue did not return resting depth for this contract. Quotes and history above are unaffected.

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

20:38 ET EDT
Large Polymarket NO execution: $6,075 at 30%
21:04 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $9,800 at 98%
21:10 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $5,235 at 97%
21:53 ET EDT
Large Polymarket YES execution: $9,109 at 100%

Largest recent trades

By notional value

Market	Time	Side	Price	Size	Notional	Before	+5 min	Move	Impact
Cavaliers vs. BucksSports · Polymarket ↗	21:53 ET49 min ago	Cavaliers buy	99.9%	9.1K	$9,109	—	—	—	Normal
Cavaliers vs. BucksSports · Polymarket ↗	21:10 ET2 h ago	Cavaliers sell	97.1%	5.4K	$5,235	—	—	—	Normal
Cavaliers vs. BucksSports · Polymarket ↗	21:04 ET2 h ago	Cavaliers buy	98.0%	10K	$9,800	—	—	—	Normal
Cavaliers vs. BucksSports · Polymarket ↗	21:01 ET2 h ago	Cavaliers buy	96.0%	3.7K	$3,521	—	—	—	Normal
Cavaliers vs. BucksSports · Polymarket ↗	20:38 ET2 h ago	Bucks sell	30.0%	20K	$6,075	—	—	—	Normal

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 31 at 8:00PM ET: If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Source: https://www.nba.com/

Related markets

Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)98.6% · $965K 24h
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)98.0% · $316K 24h
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 234.599.9% · $62,786 24h
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 236.599.9% · $59,727 24h
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)99.9% · $58,671 24h
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 235.599.9% · $48,380 24h
Spread: Cavaliers (-22.5)99.9% · $40,775 24h
Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)99.9% · $33,947 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.