PolymarketOpenWorld

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

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Implied probability

82.5%

82.5¢ per contract

1 hour: —
24 hours: —
7 days: —

Polymarket

No history available for this range yet.

Market statistics

24h volume: $48,253
Total volume: $164K
Liquidity: $42,967
Open interest: —
Spread: 1.0¢
Best bid / ask: 82¢ / 83¢
Closes: Nov 7, 23:59 ET
Status: open

Order book

Executable asks for both outcomes, deepest first

Buy YES (asks)

83.0¢236

84.0¢730.7

85.0¢1.7K

86.0¢8.5K

87.0¢1.0K

88.0¢500

89.0¢5.1K

90.0¢392.1

Buy NO (asks)

19.0¢463.2

20.0¢204

21.0¢213.9

22.0¢9

23.0¢10

24.0¢20

25.0¢396

26.0¢1.0K

Why is this moving?

Evidence-grounded explanation

Explanation pending

An evidence-grounded explanation is written once this market gathers enough confirmed price and trade evidence. Every number on this page is already live.

Event timeline

Reconstructed from snapshots and trades

No timeline events yet

Timeline entries appear once price or trade activity crosses a reporting threshold.

Largest recent trades

By notional value

No trades in this window

Nothing has printed above the reporting threshold yet. Trade feeds refresh every five minutes.

Most price-impactful trades

Ranked by realised movement adjusted for liquidity — not the same as the largest

No impact measured yet

Impact is computed once five minutes of post-trade price history exists for a print.

Matched market

No equivalent contract found

No contract on the other venue currently matches this one closely enough to compare. Matching re-runs hourly as new markets list.

Resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not co…

Related markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?99.9% · $259K 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?97.6% · $235K 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?99.2% · $143K 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?95.5% · $138K 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?94.5% · $84,126 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?98.7% · $77,346 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?91.5% · $74,652 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?97.5% · $42,424 24h

Implied probability is derived from live quotes and does not include fees. Volume and liquidity are reported as each venue publishes them and are not directly comparable between venues.